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15

2023

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11

The foundation of the new energy industry - analysis of the lithium power equipment industry (excerpt)


Lithium power equipment is the basis of lithium battery production. The lithium battery production process is complex. The whole production process involves more than 30 processes and requires a variety of equipment to be completed. Therefore, the process level and operation of lithium battery directly affect the performance and quality of lithium batteries, and is one of the key factors determining the quality of lithium batteries.

From the perspective of the specific production link,The production of lithium batteries can be divided into two parts: cell manufacturing and module/PACK, among which cell manufacturing includes three processes: electrode production (front), cell assembly (middle section) and cell activation test (back section). According to the application in lithium battery production, lithium power equipment can be divided into front equipment, middle equipment, rear equipment and module/PACK equipment.

I. The overall market scale of the lithium power equipment industry

The market demand and development of the lithium battery industry are mainly determined by the market capacity of the downstream lithium battery industry. In recent years, with the rapid development of the lithium battery industry, the market demand for lithium power equipment has increased.

(1) Market capacity of downstream lithium battery industry

According to different application scenarios, lithium batteries can be divided into three categories: power batteries, energy storage batteries and consumer batteries. Thanks to the rapid development of the new energy vehicle, energy storage and consumer electronics market, the market demand for lithium batteries continues to increase, and shipments are increasing year by year. GGII data shows that in 2022, China and global lithium battery shipments will reach 658GWh and 920GWh respectively, and are expected to reach 1,805GWh and 2,497GWh respectively by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 39.99 respectively. % and 39.49%.

(2) Market size of the lithium power equipment industry

With the development of the new energy vehicle, energy storage and consumer electronics market, the market demand for power batteries, energy storage batteries and consumer batteries is increasing year by year. The development prospects of the lithium battery industry are good, and lithium battery manufacturers have formulated and implemented production expansion plans one after another. Affected by the expansion of power battery enterprises, the global market demand for lithium power equipment continues to rise. GGII predicts that by 2025, the global lithium power equipment market is expected to reach 290 billion yuan, and from 2022 to 2025, the annual compound growth rate will be 28.71%, with a rapid growth rate.

Similar to the three-legged pattern of China, Japan and South Korea in the global lithium battery market, the main participants in the global lithium equipment market are mainly lithium equipment enterprises in China, Japan and South Korea. In recent years, driven by the guidance of the national new energy vehicle policy and the rapid increase in market demand caused by the expansion of production of domestic power battery enterprises, the domestic demand for lithium electric equipment has increased rapidly. In 2022, the market size of lithium equipment in China's cell manufacturing has reached 100 billion yuan, accounting for 73.53% of the global lithium equipment market in cell manufacturing. According to GGII's prediction, by 2025, the market size of lithium equipment in China's cell manufacturing will reach 155 billion yuan. From 2022 to 2025, the annual compound growth rate will be 15.73%, with a faster growth rate.

According to public data such as GGII and CITIC Construction and Investment Research Institute, the cost of cell manufacturing-related equipment in the lithium power equipment industry chain accounts for about 83%. According to this calculation, from 2020 to 2022, the total market scale of global lithium power equipment (including cell manufacturing equipment, module/PACK equipment and logistics equipment) was 51.349 billion yuan, 903.61 billion yuan and 16.38.855 billion yuan respectively, and the total market scale of China's lithium power equipment was 34.578 billion yuan, 708.43 billion yuan and 100.482 billion yuan respectively.

Overall, the market scale of lithium battery equipment is considerable. With the rapid development of the lithium battery industry, the market demand for lithium battery equipment continues to increase and has a good development prospect.

II. Market scale of lithium power equipment segmentation industry

(1) Market scale of lithium electric laser equipment

At present, laser technology has been widely used in all aspects of lithium battery manufacturing, including polar cutting, polar ear welding, coil welding, sealing welding, sealing nail welding, shell coding, etc. With the rapid development of the lithium battery industry, the market demand for lithium laser equipment has increased. In 2021, the market size of lithium laser equipment in China reached 7.4 billion yuan, which is expected to increase to 13 billion yuan by 2025. From 2021 to 2025, the compound growth rate will exceed 15%.

(2) Market scale of lithium battery cell assembly equipment

Cell assembly equipment is applied to the cell assembly process in the cell manufacturing process and belongs to the middle stage equipment. Cell assembly is one of the core links in the manufacture of lithium battery cells. The performance of cell assembly equipment directly affects the quality and production efficiency of lithium batteries.

According to the cost composition of the lithium power equipment industrial chain, the cost of cell assembly lines (excluding winding/stacks) accounts for about 15% of the entire lithium power equipment industry chain. According to GGII data, the market size of China's cell assembly line from 2019 to 2021 was 3.42 billion yuan, 4.3 billion yuan and 9 billion yuan respectively. It is expected that by 2025, the market size of China's cell assembly line will reach 16.8 billion yuan, with an annual compound growth rate of 16.89%.

(3) Market size of lithium battery module/PACK equipment

Lithium battery modules/PACK devices are used in lithium battery modules/PACK links. The packaging of lithium batteries is generally divided into three stages: "cell-module-PACK". The module assembles a single cell into different series parallel modules through the bus. PACK is to assemble the lithium battery module or battery set, bus, soft connection, protection department (BMS board), housing, output (including connector), etc. into a battery package. In recent years, with the gradual promotion of CTP (Cell to PACK) and CTC (Cell To Chassis) battery packaging technology, the boundary between lithium battery module equipment and PACK equipment has gradually blurred and shown a fusion trend.

According to the cost composition of the lithium power equipment industry chain, the cost of module/PACK equipment accounts for about 9% of the entire lithium power equipment industry chain. According to GGII data, the scale of China's lithium battery module/PACK equipment from 2019 to 2021 was 3.4 billion yuan, 3.8 billion yuan and 8 billion yuan respectively. It is expected that by 2025, the market size of China's lithium battery module/PACK equipment will reach 20 billion yuan, with an annual compound growth rate of 25.74%.

III. Technical development level and characteristics of the lithium power equipment industry

At present, the main participants in the global lithium power equipment market are mainly lithium power equipment manufacturers in China, Japan and South Korea. From the perspective of technological development, Japan and South Korea rely on the first-mover advantages and technological accumulation of the lithium battery industry, there have been a number of high-quality lithium power equipment enterprises with high stability, high precision and high automation, such as Japan's CKD (main winding machine), Japan Hirano (main coating machine), South Korea PNT (main coating machine, crusher, cutting machine, etc.), South Korea CIS (main coating machine, roller, cutting machine, etc.), etc.

However, affected by the small demand in the local downstream terminal market, lithium power equipment enterprises in Japan and South Korea are generally small in scale and have small production capacity. China's lithium battery and lithium power equipment industry started later than Japan and South Korea, but in recent years, with the strong support of the state for the new energy vehicle industry, the domestic new energy industry chain has developed rapidly, promoting the rapid development of the upstream lithium battery and lithium power equipment industry. At present, China's lithium power equipment enterprises have the technical strength to compete with Japanese and South Korean enterprises, and benefit from the strong support of policies and a broad terminal market. In terms of business scale, Chinese lithium power equipment enterprises far surpass Japanese and Korean enterprises and become the main force in the industry.

From the perspective of technical characteristics, the production process of lithium batteries is complex, involving more equipment, and the technical difficulties of different equipment are different. In addition to leading enterprises in the leading industries such as Pioneer Intelligence to develop corresponding equipment for different processes, most lithium power equipment enterprises in the industry, combined with their own technical reserves, deeply cultivate subdivisions with competitive advantages, carry out differentiated competition, and constantly consolidate and improve their market position.

IV. Main barriers to entering the industry

(1) Technical barriers

The formation of core technologies requires long-term R&D investment and experience accumulation. It is difficult for new enterprises in the industry to achieve technological breakthroughs in a short period of time. Their products are not fully competitive in terms of technical level, performance, cost and other aspects, and it is difficult to obtain market recognition.

(2) Product barriers

The lithium battery production process is complex and involves many equipment. In addition to leading enterprises in the pioneer intelligence industry that can develop corresponding equipment for different processes, most lithium power equipment enterprises in the industry, combined with their own technical reserves, deeply cultivate subdivisions with competitive advantages, and constantly consolidate and improve their market position.

(3) Customer barriers

Cell assembly is an important link in the production of lithium batteries. The performance and quality of cell assembly equipment directly affect the production efficiency and pass rate of lithium batteries, and then affect the production cost and business performance of lithium battery manufacturers. Therefore, lithium battery manufacturers are more cautious about the selection of suppliers of lithium power equipment. Generally, they will have in-depth technical exchanges with lithium power equipment manufacturers before procurement, and the purchased equipment will be debugged and run-in for a long time. The overall verification cycle is relatively long. After the two sides establish a cooperative relationship, the follow-up cooperation will be smooth and stable.

V. Development trend of lithium equipment industry

(1) The application of laser processing technology in lithium power equipment is increasing.

Laser machining technology is an innovation of traditional machining technology. Compared with traditional machining technology, laser machining technology has the characteristics of high efficiency, precision, stability and reliability, high automation and safety, cleanliness and environmental protection. With the continuous expansion of the production capacity of lithium batteries, especially power battery manufacturers, higher requirements have been put forward for the accuracy, safety and consistency of lithium power equipment. As an advanced processing technology, laser processing technology is highly in line with the production needs of lithium batteries, and its application in lithium power equipment is increasing. At present, the application of laser processing technology has covered many links such as pole production, cell assembly and module/PACK of lithium battery production, involving laser cutting, laser welding, laser cleaning, laser marking (coding) and other processes.

(2) Increased market demand for high-efficiency, high-precision and high-stability lithium equipment

The rapid popularization of new energy vehicles has led to a rapid increase in the market demand for power batteries, and the existing power battery production capacity can no longer meet market demand. In order to improve product delivery capacity, major power battery enterprises in the industry, including Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and LG, have proposed production expansion plans. On the one hand, the expansion of lithium battery capacity is achieved by building new factories and increasing the number of production lines, and on the other hand, by improving the production efficiency of production lines. The requirements of downstream customers for the delivery speed of lithium batteries have led to an increase in the market demand for high-efficiency lithium equipment.

The accuracy and stability of lithium power equipment directly affect the production efficiency and quality of batteries. On the one hand, the production process of lithium batteries is complex and involves many types of equipment. Although the yield of single link of equipment is relatively high at present, the yield of good products in the whole line is still unsatisfactory. Further improving the accuracy and stability of lithium power equipment is conducive to improving the good product rate of the whole line, and thus improving the production efficiency. On the other hand, lithium power equipment with low accuracy and poor stability will directly affect the performance, quality and even safety of the battery. High-precision and high-stability equipment has become the first choice for major enterprises in the industry.

In summary, in order to improve production efficiency and ensure product quality, the market demand for high-efficiency, high-precision and high-stability lithium electric equipment is increasing.

(3) The intelligent trend of lithium power equipment is obvious.

The rapid popularization of new energy vehicles has led to the rapid increase in the market demand for power batteries, and the existing power battery production capacity can no longer meet the market demand. In order to improve product delivery capacity, major power battery enterprises in the industry, including Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy and LG, have put forward plans to expand production. Lithium battery production capacity began to move from GWh to TWh, putting forward higher requirements for lithium battery production efficiency and safety.

Under the background of rapid expansion of production capacity and increasing safety requirements, traditional equipment and manufacturing processes can no longer meet the development needs of the lithium battery industry. Realizing the intelligentization of equipment is a necessary prerequisite for improving production efficiency and yield. Therefore, lithium power manufacturing equipment shows an obvious trend of intelligence.

(4) Accelerate the globalization of lithium power equipment

China is currently the world's largest manufacturer of lithium power equipment. In 2022, China's lithium power equipment market reached 100 billion yuan, accounting for 73.53% of the global lithium power equipment market. With the acceleration of the global electrification process, Volkswagen MEB platform and BMW battery supply chain have risen one after another. Countries in Europe and the United States have continuously increased their investment to promote the rapid development of the new energy vehicle and lithium battery industry. It is expected that the compound growth rate of the global lithium power equipment market from 2022 to 2025 will be 28.71%, significantly higher than the domestic 15.73%.

From the perspective of the global market, cylindrical batteries have been used for a long time in overseas markets, and the market penetration rate of cylindrical batteries is significantly higher than that in China. Cylindrical full-ear batteries with high consistency, good safety and obvious cost advantages have become the unanimous choice of global giants such as Tesla, BMW, Panasonic, LG, Yiwei Lithium Energy and Beehive Energy. The development trend of battery full polarization has gradually emerged and is facing urgent mass production needs. With the global development of lithium electric equipment and the acceleration of global mass production of cylindrical full-ear batteries, cylindrical full-ear battery equipment is expected to become a new growth pole for lithium electric equipment.